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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: maceng2 who wrote (15457)1/3/2002 8:18:58 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
, as climatic change will (is) take(ing) place

I think we can say, with certainty, that the climate will change. However, I don't believe we can say with any certainty if it is getting hotter or colder. Don't forget, some of the people who are predicting a hotter climate were predicting a coming Ice age not too long ago.

The Carbon gas influence is really up for grabs. The computer models being used are still too primitive to correctly predict the cooling effect of water vapor, and what will happen with it.

All you can say for sure about the Computer models is that, as they get more accurate, they continue to narrow the range of heat increase they predict. The IPCC (UN), best estimate of global warming by 2100 was 5.9 degrees in 1990. That same estimate was down to 4.7 degrees in 1992 and had dropped to 4 degrees in 1995. At some point, we might well see this estimate reduced to such a small value that is not much different from the range of natural climate variability.
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