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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 677.48

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Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35769)	1/4/2002 11:41:10 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 67677

08:39 ET LightPath (LPTH) 3.98: Co reduces Q2 revenue outlook to $2.4 mln (consensus $4.4 mln). LightPath experienced deferral of some orders into the third quarter. [Harry: Continued weak optical demand for telecom and theatre applications] 11:30 ET Merrill Lynch on Technical and Design Software : Macromedia (MACR 20.39 +0.43) and Parametric (PMTC 7.85 -0.21) recently warned, but the firm is generally comfortable with the other names. Firm likes AutoDesk (ADSK 38.69 +0.09), Adobe (ADBE 36.35 +3.27), MSC Software (MNS 16.35 +0.20). 11:26 ET Merrill Lynch Q4 Enterprise Software : Firm expects Q4 to be more positive than Q3 with fewer warnings. Firm expects a modest sequential improvement in the quarter. Because the stocks have run so strongly, firm does not expect much upside if a company reports in-line and expects profit taking if a company misses as was the case with Peregrine (PRGN 9.45 +0.18). Merrill prefers stocks that are market leaders and have strong balance sheets such as Mercury Interactive (MERQ 35.20 +0.18). Firm also expects i2 (ITWO 8.72 +0.11) to meet or beat estimates. 07:08 ET Finisar Corp (FNSR) 12.36: CSFB upgrades to BUY from Hold; says recent data suggests that solid backlog is building well into the AprilQ. In particular, believes the ramp of the EMC/Dell reseller agreement, MCDT's continued traction in its low-end switches, and EMLX's share gains at Sun and Dell are all likely to create increased visibility for FNSR. Firm sets a 12-month target of $16. 06:51 ET ADTRAN (ADTN) 27.55: Telecom equipment co warns for Q4; lowers revenue forecast to $89 mln vs consensus of $96.80 mln. On the bottom-line, ADTN sees EPS of $0.09-$0.10, including a $0.06 charge for increased bad debt allowance. Analysts had expected earnings of $0.16 a share for the qtr. Increase in bad debt allowance stems from financial difficulties experienced by one ADTN's telecom distributors. [Harry: Rev miss indicates continued weakness in T1 line demand. This effects TXCC, TLAB and to a lesser extent AFCI.]

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