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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.93-0.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: Icebrg who wrote (5334)1/4/2002 3:41:14 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
I was perhaps a little flippant when I dismissed my original "short answer is BMY" response.

As general-public biotech investors, we are normally operating under a huge handicap. We simply don't have access to all the information that would enable us to make a truly rational decision about a drug candidate (until we see the FDA briefing documents and an Advisory Committee transcript, that is). Until that point, we are operating mostly in the dark, with only a few scraps of light that the company carefully chooses to shed, plus a few conference presentations and/or publications, also entirely written by the company. (Plus of course the basic science, especially for those like Miljenko, Rick and Biotech Jim that can judge this accurately). Add to this that even the very best companies spin their results, and the not-so-good companies sometimes are outright deceptive.

So that's why I prepared to defer to BMY's judgement here. They had access to all the data and had every incentive to scrutinize it thoroughly. That doesn't mean to say they (or other big pharma) are perfect of course, but you have to accept that in all probability they were able to do a better analysis than we can with our limited information. It's easy to say in retrospect they must have missed something because of the rejection; however investment decisions cannot (unfortunately) be made in retrospect.

Peter
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