Hello Pezz, did anyone, but any one at all expect the market to tank in the first quarter? No. None. Nadda. Absolutely no one. At least not on this thread. Why? Because ‘the market always goes up in January’, even in 2000, 2001, and now, 2002, at least in the first few days, else events would turn out to be horrendous as oppose to just terrible.
I am guessing that your outstanding result in 2001, more particular your performance in the latter half, is an accident of investment genius in an up-market mixed in with the occasional luck of not being in the wrong shares.
I do not begrudge your 2001 result, though I caution you once again that you may want to take some chips off the table so that another game can be played on a different day. Gambling is a game, ruled by game theory, which is math; speculation, on the other hand, is fun, ruled by luck, which is less predictable.
I do envy your freedom to engage in speculation, answerable to apparently no one and requiring no 'financial reset' ability. But, then again, may be I speak too soon, as you may have:0)
Let me give you the ever so brief, meaning short, as opposed to underwear, and not as in the opposite of long equities, outline of the script … animal spirit will rule until around the latter half of the first quarter, and then, well, off with the shorts, meaning brief, and you know the rest … because science fiction is only convincing up to a point, when the New Ec productivity miracle is no more, and anesthesia only has an effect for so long, until the J6P home no longer functions as a ATM machine.
In the meantime, a great calamity has befallen the BBR threaders, we who survived American Spirit’s call for optimism, MeDroogies learned Economics, and any number of inconveniences.
I am now stomped by what has happened to the BBR, because the air is so thick here that I cannot see my own posts, or those responding to them. I feel suppressed by the large volume of posts much as a mosquito feels when swatted by the full weight of one week’s worth of junk mail. What to do? Well, I now see the benefit of a dictatorship more readily and so I, in the best of Hong Kong tradition(s), am thinking of voting with my virtual body corporate and click my mouse on Elmat’s Financial Collapse of 2001 and beyond …
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… looking for the beyond … but first, not without a fight in the worst of the Chen Clan tradition, backed by the iron will and platinum discipline of ‘run if matters look graver still’ but give ‘em hell in the meantime:0)
Must run now (literally, as in jogging), and to not add further bulk to BBR, and so will skip the discussions about ...
(a) Argentina (they just voted themselves some cash, as in money, as opposed to wealth, as in chips that can double for breakfast)
(b) Japan (they just made themselves another promise to fix banks, for the gazzilionth time, each time smaller, as in the transister radio)
(c) US markets (they just borrowed more and speculated again)
(d) UK (BOE leader said rates may go up)
(e) Euro (success, so far, so good)
(f) CSCO/AOL (highly valued)
(g) Halliburton (not so high anymore, possibly Enron-ed, so to speak)
(h) Banks (just not clear, as in transparent, for now)
Chugs, Jay
P.S. The normally upbeat Jacob just posted to me some really depressing views ... he has made some very good points, and if played out, guaranteeing a long sunless winter just like in Japan ...
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