GOP faces threat to its governorships
By Richard Benedetto, USA TODAY
The era of Republican governors might be in jeopardy after an eight-year run.
Part of the threat to the Republican Party's 27-21 majority (independents hold two governorships) is simple mathematics. Republicans must defend 23 of the 36 gubernatorial seats on the ballot this year. Term limits are forcing several popular GOP governors to retire. Between term limits and retirements, 11 GOP governors are not running again.
Also in the equation:
• The economy is shaping up as the No. 1 issue. The downturn has produced budget shortfalls in at least 40 states after nearly a decade of economic growth.
• At least a dozen states convened special legislative sessions last fall to deal with reduced revenue. Budget shortfalls range from about $300 million in Tennessee to more than $6 billion in New York. Governors likely will be forced to raise taxes or cut spending, both politically dangerous.
"Shrinking revenues, contentious budget fights and reduced spending are all tough on incumbents, and most incumbents are us," says Haley Barbour, former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
• Uncertainty stemming from the terrorist attacks Sept. 11 is complicating state budgets. Security measures have siphoned cash from already strained state coffers. Governors are looking to Washington to help with money for equipment, training and personnel.
"So many of us are under incredible financial pressure right now," South Dakota Gov. Bill Janklow, a Republican, says.
• Republicans face what independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg calls "voter fatigue."
"Voters tend to like to rotate the parties after one has been in too long," Rothenberg says. "In many states, Republicans have been in for eight years, and voters may figure it's time for a change."
Governors' offices held by Republicans in Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Wisconsin appear most vulnerable to Democratic challenges, analysts say. Democrats have fewer governors' offices in serious jeopardy.
And though Republicans in Congress may be helped by President Bush's war on terrorism, Democrats hope to run state campaigns on economic issues.
"These races are going to be fought on bread-and-butter issues: the economy, health care and education," says Vermont Democratic Gov. Howard Dean, who has been crisscrossing the country recruiting Democratic candidates.
Connecticut Gov. John Rowland, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, acknowledges the battle to keep a majority of GOP governors will be tough but not impossible.
"Winning the war on terrorism, keeping our people safe and jump-starting the economy are our main concerns," Rowland says. "If we do those jobs, the politics will take care of itself."
Controlling governors' offices is critical to both parties. Governors help raise money and provide campaign organizations for presidential candidates. And they act as a powerful lobby in Washington for party projects and policies.
Republican governors were key in the fight for welfare reform and a balanced federal budget in the mid-1990s. A majority of Democratic governors would likely push for more federal aid to states and localities next year.
Despite the state of the economy, Republicans got some cheering news at year's end. Bush's 86% job approval rating, buoyed by his leadership in the war against terrorism, appeared to be boosting Republicans' chances in the 2002 congressional elections.
But political analysts say Bush's coattails might not extend to gubernatorial elections, where state issues usually dominate.
"Each gubernatorial election has to be analyzed on its own terms," says Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.
At a recent meeting in Las Vegas, Republican governors were warned by GOP consultant Michael Murphy and GOP pollster Bill McInturff that no matter how popular Bush is or how well the war on terrorism is going later this year, each must run on his own merits.
"We know the country rallies around the president ... but I think we're making a mistake if we think the country will rally around the Republican Party," Murphy says.
Key races to watch:
• Florida: GOP Gov. Jeb Bush, who is seeking a second term, faces accusations that he helped his brother win the controversial 2000 presidential election in Florida. Former U.S. attorney general Janet Reno leads a pack of Democrats battling to run against him.
• New York: GOP Gov. George Pataki is seeking a third term. Democrats Andrew Cuomo, son of former governor Mario Cuomo, and state Comptroller Carl McCall are vying to challenge him.
• California: Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, seeking a second term, saw his standing drop because of the state's energy crisis. Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is among his possible Republican opponents.
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