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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 237.94-0.2%Nov 7 3:59 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (53438)1/5/2002 6:32:56 AM
From: Steve Lee  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
Hello Zeev,

I like the "criminal-like" thinking behind your MU scenario. It seems to put them in a no win situation. If as you contend they need a 300mm fab to stay competitive, then that implies prices of DRAM are going to fall. If DRAM falls then it is going to be very difficult to engineer the scenario.

So I see the urgency in engineering the scenario before the consumer retrenchment of your double dip recession arrives. While the scenario is a valid plan and may pan out, I believe it will fail. I think your consumer retrenchment is here with mortgage re-fis, 0% financing on cars and lost money on Tech Bubble I representing a shot wad. The December unemployment numbers weren't as bad as some had expected. Maybe those economists forgot the human factor about not sacking people right before Christmas. I believe business conditions from this point forward will prove not only that the v-shaped recovery is a myth, but that in fact we haven't bottomed.

In the meantime, MU is too dangerous to short, apart from short term speculative overbought plays after pops taking it above the the top bollinger. I hope your scenario plays out, cos then there is the chance of shorting MU from above $80 into single digits <g>.
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