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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio
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To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (569)1/5/2002 3:55:19 PM
From: tuck  Read Replies (1) of 1005
 
IJ,

Thanks for weighing in here. For openers, BLUE HP is the acronym for this thread/portfolio (it might also describe Carly Fiorina's current emotional state <g>).

I understand what you are saying about the Ribapharm patent estate, centered around ribavirin by itself, being relatively weak compared to the bundle with PEG Intron A. So how likely is a patent attack by generics to be successful? I haven't looked at when the patent expires -- or has it already?

If it has expired, or does soon, the spin off makes sense to insulate ICN (+ Panic, for "his personal advantage") from such an attack. My guess is that if the odds off a successful attack are high, ICN & insiders will be selling shares of Ribapharm as fast as they can. Spin offs are generally more for the benefit of the parent company (can you say Genzyme? I knew you could) than for the spin offs' prospective shareholders. Particularly if management veracity is in question.

I gather -- again, I haven't looked, I was just putting this possible IPO on the radar -- that levovirin is a minor tweak to ribavirin that also might not survive a patent attack?

Looks like a good short candidate for BLUE HP?

Appreciate your thoughts.

Cheers, Tuck
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