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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio

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To: tuck who wrote (570)	1/5/2002 6:06:27 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (1) of 1005

Hi Tuck, The composition of matter patent in the US for ribavirin has expired. There are other use patents covering the use of ribavirin in HCV. The bundling suggests that SGP was not confident (or perhaps just defensive) those patents alone would protect the franchise. SGP and ICN are each making a fortune off ribavirin. If this franchise could be disrupted by a generic these companies would take a big hit starting with ICN but SGP would suffer too. (This would add greatly to SGP's current woes.) The value of ICN without ribavirin is subject to substantial doubt. For several years the company has been losing money if the royalties from ribavirin are pulled out. Many holders think there is value there but that these divisions have been mismanaged by Milan Panic. That is a distinct possibility but not a certainty, IMO. I have been expecting BRL taking a stab at ribavirin. If it does look out. Levovirin - this one is very interesting. SGP had a right of first refusal to take this drug up. They passed. Why? Roche which has been doing deals with ICN for several years took over the drug to be used against HCV. SGP and Roche are in a heated battle to sell their alpha interferons to treat HCV and ribavirin is needed to boost the effectiveness of the treatments. So how could SGP which had the inside track to levovirin let it slip into Roche's hands. I may be too jaded. Here is what I think. SGP does not think levovirin will work in HCV. Roche did the deal as part of it's ongoing relationship with ICN and to get a talking point for the reps until such time as it turns out that the drug does not work. I have some reason to think that levovirin will not work. Here is where I talk about science (and I am not qualified to do so). Ribavirin has been described as interfering with viral replication and having certain immunomodulatory effects. The anti-replication properties have been offered as the MOA by which ribavirin/interferon alpha combo treatment works in HCV. Yet, the descriptions of levovirin talk about the immunomodulatory effects and not about interfering with viral replication. So perhaps that is why SGP did not exercise their right of refusal to acquire the rights to levovirin. If we could ever figure out if I am right it would create quite an opportunity. <g> Any of the science types reading or have I lost you? ij

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