TGPTNDR, Re: "According to Piper, HP & CPQ have over 1/2 Q inventory of P4s on hand. That sounds like a STUFF to me since it's after the 4Q selling season.(Yeah, Yeah -- Q1's about as sales heavy, but it's inventory clearance time. Out with the old junk at firesale prices, In with the new junk that you're really going to start selling in Q3.)"
Intel also had a Pentium 4 shortage in the fourth quarter. You don't have shortages because you are stuffing all your products to only a few select customers. That doesn't make any sense. The two things are almost mutually exclusive. But, I'm sure you can believe what you want to believe.
As for me, I don't think I know enough to center on exact estimates. I think it's reasonable to assume that Intel increased unit volumes, since because of the shortages, they were able to empty out all their inventories, which would have made up for less fab capacity because they switched to the larger Willamette die.
I would agree that unit volumes may be close or over 30M units from Intel, and that they will probably still reach the high end of their revised estimates ($6.8-$6.9 billion in revenue). I think that gross margins may be up due to the smaller Celeron to premium CPU ratio that some of the press are reporting. With more volumes and better gross margins, I see Intel beating EPS estimates, and probably getting $0.12 or higher. Other than that, I won't get into more details. Feel free to bookmark me if you want.
wbmw |
