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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (49707)1/5/2002 6:56:44 PM
From: substancep  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Jurgis,

A couple of points.

1) My time horizon until desired retirement is 14 years. 24 if I have to go the distance. :-(

2) To retire in 14 years with the quantity of money I think I will need then, I will need 11.35% annual return on the quantity of dollars I invest each month over the next 14 years.

I have used the historical returns of the S&P 500 index as my planning tool to reach this goal.

WRT mutual funds, I don't know who will be driving those funds over such a lengthy period of time so using the S&P 500 takes the guesswork out of that part of the equation.

Also, I think market volatility should not be an issue over my pre-retirement investing time horizon because if I am dollar-cost-averaging the volatility should smooth out.

So, I don't use the S&P 500 index because it is THE BEST. Rather, I use it because it's historical returns fit well with my retirement planning. I just hope this planning doesn't turn out to be analogous to having driven forward using the rear view mirror.

I hope Buffett is wrong and the market returns the 11% I am looking for and not 6 or 7%.

WRT Gorilla Gaming, I still am convinced the Gorilla Game is THE fundamental authority on how high tech industries work. It is actually rather easy to understand. Particularly so when one has a thread like this as a resource.

Want to dive into something complex? Try biotech investing? Yeepers. I work in the field and still can't figure it out to any reasonable degree of confidence.

Bryan@bettergetanotherjoborI'llneedmorethan11%.com
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