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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 683.34

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Nov 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Robert G. Harrell who wrote (35781)	1/5/2002 11:37:33 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) of 67577

Harry, Its a messy chart but much simpler in weekly bar form. trendvue.com Its been in a big consolidation zone since July 2000, having tested the range on the low and then the high end. Bottom line, its still stuck in the range. Despite the close last week, the weekly bar is still a "down" bar and on the weekly, a downswing is still in place. Next week very well may change all of that, and I suggest that it must move up here otherwise the downswing will turn into more than a simple retracement (on the weekly). On the daily, its currently in an upswing but running into resistance at multiple points: trendvue.com - the top of the big dark candle - a prior swing - 20 + 50 EMAs (no hard and fast rule, but many people watch and act on MA's, whether it makes sense or not) My question to you or anyone who really knows T/A is does a reverse head and shoulders have a positive implication if it is on top of a long up trend? I don't 'see' a H&S here, and IMO those patterns are too big to really act upon. They can be useful to measure potential range of movement in classic E&M style, but I don't use them except to note when they exist and perhaps develop a plan to take advantge of them. The H&S is a big pattern which is actually composed of other smaller, easier to deal with patterns. It really is just a series of consolidations at different levels. Identifying when a consolidation is happening (and for me, staying out of the way until its done) vs a trend is the important part. Mike

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