Hello ild, DRAM business may continue to be low-margin, regardless of degree of consolidation. Or, it may become higher margin, as Bilow says. But, who cares?
From an investor's point of view it doesn't matter. What matters is that this is a highly cyclical business and so the key to investment success is to time the cycles correctly. Any investor who is always long or always short on a cyclical like this will be disappointed. But, you can make fabulous money long on the upturn and short on the downturn. That's all there is to it, no more, no less.
And now, IMHO we're clearly somewhere near the bottom of the cycle, so I would definitely not short. Unless, you're speculating on a short-term gain due to the Micron-Hynix negotiations breaking down, which may have a good probability. But, you would have to really be on your feet in case they do put a deal together. As I said in my previous post, this looks like a high-risk, medium-return strategy to me, i.e. not particularly attractive.
Ulf |
