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Biotech / Medical : Neuroscience

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To: scott_jiminez who started this subject	1/7/2002 6:19:38 AM
From: scott_jiminez	of 278

Portfolios update: It's been quite a while since I've updated the performance data of the portfolios I began on 9/28/00 (15 months ago!). To review, three portfolios were created, Hubris-Biotech, Hubris-SEM (Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers), and Pariah. This folly was created based on my belief at the time that the biotech stocks were grossly overvalued and the SEM stocks were on the cusp of a recovery. The components of the portfolios have remained unchanged during the period with the following exceptions: 1. ASM International (ASMI) was added to the SEM portfolio to avoid presentation bias for KLIC, a personal holding. ASMI is one of the more direct competitors of KLIC in some markets. 2. A stock was dropped from the Pariah portfolio last year (noted on this thread at the time) since the company went bankrupt. Interpretation of the data is in the eyes of the beholder. My approach to these sectors remains largely unchanged: while I don't believe biotech is under as much global pressure as I perceived 15 months ago, the winners will be a very small subgroup. In contrast, the entire SEM group is likely to continue to do well as the recovery gains momentum, with the current relative rankings (which have been mostly in place for many months) remaining largely intact. 1. Portfolio rankings Hubris–SEM -1.2% (w/o ASMI: -4.1%) Pariah -5.3% Hubris–Biotech -52.3% > 2. Individual portfolios Hubris–SEM KLIC +45.9% KLAC +22.5% ASMI +21.9% LRCX +20.2% NVLS -9.7% TER -11.7% AMAT -28.6% AMKR -28.9% ASML -42.5% Pariah KLIC +45.9% KLIC +41.4% HDIIW -68.5% MXR -68.5% Hubris – Biotech -52.3% NBIX +13.8% NBSC -36.6% BTRN -49.6% SEPR -54.6% RGEN -62.6% MLNM -69.4% VRTX -74.3% TTP -85.1% > 3. Relative performance of individual stocks KLIC +45.9% KLIC +41.4% KLAC +22.5% ASMI +21.9% LRCX +20.2% NBIX +13.8% NVLS -9.7% TER -11.7% AMAT -28.6% AMKR -28.9% NBSC -36.6% ASML -42.5% BTRN -49.6% SEPR -54.6% RGEN -62.6% HDIIW -68.5% MXR -68.5% MLNM -69.4% VRTX -74.3% TTP -85.1%

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