Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 137.24

-2.7%

1:00 PM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (110319)	1/7/2002 10:44:58 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (3) of 152472

...some astute observers have pointed out that a consideration of facts is "looking in the rear-view mirror"; certainly, the rear-view mirror is not the most important set of facts out there: i would much prefer to back up my arguments with facts taken from the future, but i have yet to find a good newsletter source for that subset of reality. Mucho, The reference to the "rear view mirror", as you well know, is to Buffett's Fortune article in which he notes a long term anomaly between stock market performance and underlying economic conditions. He concludes that caution must be exercised in using historical data to make predictions about the stock market based on that kind of data. I'm sure you read the article and are familiar with the anomaly Buffett pointed out and which is the subject of his "rear view mirror" comment. Diss the The Great Sage at your own peril. By the way this is what The Great One has to say about dividends at Berkshire Hathaway. "We will either pay large dividends or none at all if we can't obtain more money through re-investment (of those funds). There is no logic to regularly paying out 10% or 20% of earnings as dividends every year." focusinvestor.com I haven't read the article in a few weeks but I do recall that the one bit of data to which he did give weight in determining whether the market is properly valued was the ratio of GDP growth to the growth of the total stock market valuation. You might note that this is not a "rear view mirror" metric. Seems a good gauge to me. He seems to use it to clear up the distortions created by the anomaly he has noted.

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