J.P. Morgan Chase Raises Forecast for Oil-Demand Growth in 2002
By Alex Lawler
London, Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. raised its forecast for growth in world oil demand this year, citing an improved economic outlook in the U.S. and Asia, which account for more than half of global consumption.
The second-largest U.S. bank expects oil demand to rise by 740,000 barrels a day in 2002, it said in a report. That's up from the 550,000 barrels a day it expected in early November, said Paul Horsnell, head of energy research.
J.P. Morgan Chase was one of many forecasters that cut its oil use outlook in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. In a report published Sept. 13 it foresaw 2002 demand growth of 1.1 million barrels a day, Horsnell said. A positive revision now reflects hope that the economic aftermath will be less severe than expected a few months ago.
``Pessimism within the oil market has been dominant and very deep,'' the report said. ``The importance of the revisions lies more in their direction than their magnitude.''
The revised oil forecast comes after J.P. Morgan Chase predicted U.S. gross domestic product would be the same in the first quarter as the last three months of 2001, better than the 2 percent decline it previously expected. The bank also increased its estimate of fourth-quarter growth in Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan.
The new oil forecast is higher than that of the International Energy Agency, which expects demand to rise by 600,000 barrels a day this year, and below the U.S. Department of Energy, which foresees growth of 800,000 barrels. |
