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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12968)1/8/2002 12:18:53 PM
From: pezz  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
<<knowing that there are people with multiple mathematics degrees, PhD style, operating .....high speed super-computers . >>

Short term trading is an art not a science....maybe?

Or maybe the programmers ain't putting the right stuff into said computers. Is their track record any better than the monkeys?

Does the monkey theory take into account the spread, brokers commission [ which means that winning and losing are not a 50 50 proposition ] and a realistic scenario of supposing a consistent positive winning percentage over several years and thousands of trades as opposed to the totally unrealistic all or nothing as described?

Morever I will suggest that the majority of successful traders use roughly the same principals. If monkey theory demonstrated luck then most all the monkeys would be using different or random stock picking methods.

<<We are not too bad at predicting future events based on things which we directly perceive and which are closely allied with our evolutionary history and earlier experiences, >>

Unfortunalely an inner evolutionary instinct makes us want to be trend followers. The monkey finds food @ A twice and he's expecting it to be there a third time.Three times and he's sure it's there....He doesn't think it will be there he knows it.Contrast with the desire to take the money and run confuses responses.

Of course you might be right. In sucha case I'd rather be lucky than good......Results suggest I'm one or the other. Thousands of trades suggest [ to me any way ] that I'm the latter Of course that's what I wanna believe. No sense playing the game if it's just luck.
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