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Silicon wafer demand increases three months in a row after hitting bottom in August
Semiconductor Business News
(01/08/02 09:00 a.m. EST)
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif. -- Demand for semiconductor manufacturing materials will recovery this year from sharp declines in 2001 with silicon wafer revenues growing 9.5% to $5.72 billion in 2002 from $5.23 billion last year, according to a new forecast being presented today at the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here.
Revenues for all wafer fab materials will rebound by 11.3% to $14.14 billion in 2002 after declining 20% in 2001, said the forecast, which will be presented by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group at the meeting. SEMI is also forecasting 10.9% growth in worldwide chip packaging materials to $9.25 billion in 2002, following a 29% plunge in sales last year (see tables below for details).
Suppliers of blank silicon wafer substrates have been hit particularly hard by the current semiconductor recession. SEMI's index for monthly wafer shipments to chip manufacturers shows August being the lowest point in the downturn, which began in the second half of 2000. "For three months in a row, we have seen the index [based on a three-month moving average] slowly climb up," observed Daniel P. Tracy, senior market analyst at SEMI, which sponsors the annual ISS executive summit meeting in the Pebble Beach golf resort.
"November [blank wafer] shipments are up 13% from the low point in August," he said. "The low point in August is comparable to 46% below the peak of October 2000."
But the situation is now looking up for the battered wafer materials suppliers, based on the new SEMI forecast. Revenues for silicon wafer substrates are expected to surge 15.7% in 2003 to $6.62 billion, followed by another 10% increase to $7.28 billion in 2004. Revenues for other semiconductor material substrates, including gallium-arsenide (GaAs) wafers--are expected to grow 7.5% to $602 million in 2002 followed by an increase of 14.3% to $688 million in 2003 and a rise of 7.6% to $740 million in 2004. |
