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Technology Stocks : ADFLEX SOLUTIONS ( AFLX )
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To: rich evans who wrote (79)7/1/1997 1:11:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant   of 718
 
ricn,

Innovex is "King Rat" of the wire leadmarket for HDD's, and is now breaking ground on a new fqctory in Minnesota to build flex circuits. They are however two years away (IMO) from making any interconnect flex devices. Basically most HDD companies buy leads from INVX, so it's a net neutral to INVX who is the leading HDD company (unless the Japanese come in and recapture a bigger part of the HDD market).

AFLX looks like about 1/2 of its business is to telecommunication companies- is that correct? Re SEG; go to the SFLX Thread and read the recent conversations with Al Castleman, outgoing CEO of SFLX. He said that SFLX reps visited the SEG people about a week ago- and they could not tell if the SEG 9 gig problem was an inventory buildup issue, or a market share issue- the $64 question.

So the SEG impact may linger for a few months; but if IBM and WDC are picking up high-end HDD market share and SFLX sells to both (and buys parts from AFLX), my thinking is that the SEG issue will impact both SFLX and AFLX, but less than analysts think..... (Also go to the Disk Drive thread and look at international estimates of HDD's demand for the next five years worldwide- it's estimated to be 15-1`8% annually- so I see the SEG problem as like losing a "skirmish"...)>

Note too that SFLX ramped a volume program for mid-range HDD's this quarter for an unannounced Asian HDD maker. A name should be mentioned in the next quarterly report, due out in about 11 days...

Sincerely,

Doug F.
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