Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: carranza2 who wrote (13008)	1/8/2002 7:06:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<Trading is an art and a science. A "feel" for the market is essential> Carranza, anytime I see the claim that something is an art, rather than a science, it means to me that there is some mysticism and bs at play usually of a self-serving nature involving large payments to the artist. Because the variables can't be quantified, the artist takes a guess and hopes for the best and claims to be superior to science. It reminds me of voodoo witchdoctors. Which is not to say that everything can be quantified, so of course many things are an art rather than a science where predictable outcomes are possible. Long Term Capital Management got caught by Globalstar's Zenit crash, in a perfect storm. Which doesn't mean the modelling the market idea is wrong, just that they didn't succeed. Just as nearly all DNA attempts to make humans failed, but it seems to have been a successful thing to do in the end. Because it hasn't been done so far [or maybe it has for all I know] doesn't mean it can't be done. There is a long and ignominious history of naysayers saying things can't be done, but it is a long time since men went to the moon and mobile CDMA was invented contrary to the laws of physics according to a professor of such stuff. Kasparov was in the zone but was minced by Deep Blue. Nobody will ever again beat the Top Model in chess. It is very dangerous to bet one's money against Deep Blue or the market top model in a trading war. But of course people will try. Mqurice PS: I don't think I've explained that very well, but that'll do.

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