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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam
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To: Boplicity who wrote (5391)1/8/2002 11:37:02 PM
From: Bandit19  Read Replies (1) of 13815
 
Greg,
Well, so far so good...
From John Murphy 1/8/02
JANUARY EARLY WARNING SIGNAL IS POSITIVE... Market direction over the first five trading days of a new year constitute an "early warning" version of the January Barometer -- which is based on the idea that market direction at the start of the year helps to determine market direction for the entire year. The first five days for this year have been up for all the major averages. According to the Stock Traders Almanac, since 1950 early January gains were followed by yearly gains in all but four years. Three of those exceptions were war-related years -- 1966, 1973, and 1990. Nineteen Januarys that got off to bad starts resulted in nine down years. That means that positive readings have been more reliable than negative readings, which is a good sign for this year. One caveat, however, is that this year qualifies as a "war year" when the positive signals have been less reliable. The three charts below show the gains in each average over the last five days. The S&P 500 (which is the index the signals are based on) gained 12.41 points (+1%); the Dow Industrials gained 122.38 points (+1.2%); the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.31 points (+5.4%). We caution, however, that the first five days aren't as reliable a signal as the results for the entire month of January. But it is encouraging.
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