Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: carranza2 who wrote (13019)	1/9/2002 2:35:53 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<What predictive tool were you using when you invested in Q in the early days? Still have any of that mojo left you'd like to share? <vbg> > Wet chemistry skull matter. I think there's some left, but I don't have a hot tip at the moment. I've picked up some of that Jay Chen wimpishness. I think "head for the hills" is reasonable advice right now. Which immediately begs the question "Where the heck are the hills?" My theory on the Top Model competition is that as the models compete and get better, market volatility should smooth as the models compete away the hills and valleys. As shown by the volatility in the dot.coms and tech.wrecks, the Top Model is still pretty stupid, or owns only a little bit of capital at the moment so can't control it all yet. So there's plenty of room for stupid humans to do monkey-guessing in the markets using stochastic P:E head and shoulders double bottom analysis. Maybe transaction costs are still too high for a Top Model to do enough trading to make a statistical profit. Bid/Ask spreads and brokerage are still real money, even for a bulk buyer [I suppose - though I guess market makers can trade on their own accounts without those costs]. I imagine that a Top Model could see the angle of increase, volumes, rate of change and stuff and from that, know how people and other models will react as the process continues and those stupid people and models become aware of the changes happening. The Top Model would then get in first, knowing that by doing that, it would cause a change which would make the humans and other models react in a certain way, which the Top Model can predict. Quite simple really. No need to put data in - just react to the humans who do all the hard work of finding the external data and putting that data into the market by giving buy and sell orders. A really good Top Model would have to put its own data in by monitoring everything and entering data before any human or competing model did. Mqurice

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