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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: LTK007 who wrote (19677)1/9/2002 3:43:57 AM
From: Psycho-Social  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Mutual Fund Cash Flows and Secular Trends:
Re secular rather than cyclical bear markets, my position is that $flows into/out of stock funds are not a useful indicator, although there is a visible relationship, when seen after the fact. As I've said previously, I use demographics as the primary tool to gauge long term trends. Right now we're more or less where we were in 1963, minus the threat of inflation. Cyclical bear markets are getting longer and more severe, while the bull markets get weaker and shorter, but we could still make marginal new highs on the S&P and DJIA. I'm not looking for any final capitulation, because I believe we're just starting, or will start in a few years, a long 10-15 yr period of flat to down stock prices. Right now, I think we're in a cyclical bull market. Since I hold positions anywhere from a week to 6 months, I'm primarily focused on short and intermediate term influences.
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