What is the Missile Threat to the United States?
The threat to the United States cannot be understood only in terms of the number of nuclear missiles possessed by its enemies. Numbers tell only a small part of the story.
At the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had well over 20,000 nuclear warheads between them. Today those numbers are under 10,000.
These 10,000 warheads, however, would still cause massive destruction on both sides. But even China, with just under 20 missiles capable of hitting the United States, or North Korea, which is testing a single missile with more to follow, has the ability to kill millions of Americans.
The Threat From Russia
The collapse of the Soviet Union did not mean its disarmament.
The Soviets' massive investments in nuclear-war fighting capability remain at the disposal of the Russian government. Because of its sheer size, the Russian nuclear arsenal remains the single greatest threat to U.S. security.
Russia possesses and continues to modernize a huge nuclear arsenal—thousands of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). Though at approximate parity with the U.S. in strategic nuclear arms, Russia retains a substantial lead in non-strategic nuclear weapons, some 8-15,000 to 300.
Unfortunately for the United States, current Russian military development—at least concerning its nuclear forces—resembles that of the old Soviet Union more than a new democratic Russia.
And the rise of ex-KGB operative Vladimir Putin as President and former KGB chief Yevgeny Primakov as a major political figure suggests that the political developments the West hoped for are slow to arrive--if they arrive at all.
Another foreboding sign: Russian scientist Yuri Solomonov, in an interview in the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper in February 1999, boasted that the new Russian Topol-M rocket was the most advanced Russian strategic missile ever made.
Reports that the control of the Russian nuclear arsenal is breaking down cannot be taken lightly. Should a missile or warhead get into the hands of rogue elements of the Russian military, a launch upon the United States is not impossible.
The situation may be even more dangerous. In January 1995, President Boris Yeltsin activated his nuclear briefcase, based on the false warning that a Norwegian space rocket was a U.S. missile attack.
Even a benign Russia that miscalculates can destroy America in less than half an hour.
The CIA Factbook on Russia
The Threat From China
From a strategic point of view, China is different from Russia.
While the Russians have given up the holdings of the former Soviet Union (with some exceptions), China, on the other hand, lays claim to the Republic of China on Taiwan, as well as island possessions claimed by Japan and the Philippines.
Moreover, the Communist Chinese harbor ill feelings over past Japanese imperialism on the mainland.
As the Russians engage in arms-control diplomacy, the Chinese engage in a military buildup.
The People's Liberation Army is aggressively building a modern nuclear force capable of causing mass destruction.
The Central Intelligence Agency confirmed in 1998 that in addition having over 600 nuclear weapons, China has at least 13 nuclear-armed ICBMs aimed at the United States. Each one is capable of destroying major U.S. cities.
The Dong Feng 31 missile, with a range of 4,960 miles, gives China major strike capability against targets in Hawaii and along the entire west coast of the United States. China's next generation of ICBMs, the DF 41 and the DF 5A, will soon be capable of delivering large nuclear payloads anywhere in the U.S.
The Cox Committee Report
The CIA Factbook on China
The Threat From North Korea
Like Communist China, North Korea has already demonstrated, with its test launch of the Taepo Dong I rocket in August 1999, that it is serious about developing nuclear weapons.
The Taepo Dong I missile is capable of travelling much farther than first predicted.
The Taepo Dong II, North Korea's next generation missile, is now seen as capable of hitting not merely Alaska—repository of 25% of U.S. oil reserves—and Hawaii, but also the western states of Washington, Oregon, California and Nevada.
And lest anyone forget, this heavy investment in nuclear weaponry occurs at a time when North Korea's citizens are reportedly grossly malnourished or starving to death.
A North Korean defector, Colonel Choi Ju-hwal, explained at a 1997 U.S. Senate hearing why North Korea is developing nuclear missiles: "If war breaks out in the Korean peninsula, the North's main target will be the U.S. forces based in the South (Korea) and Japan, which is the reason the North has been working furiously on its missile program." Colonel Choi also testified that the "ultimate goal for the development of North Korean missiles is to reach the mainland of the United States."
In 1994, North Korea threatened to turn Seoul and Tokyo into a "sea of glass"—an expression that implies the use of a nuclear weapon—if the U.S. held its annual military exercises with its ally, South Korea, and insisted on continuing inspections of its nuclear weapons programs. Subsequently, the U.S. offered to suspend its inspections and build North Korea two new 1000-Megawatt nuclear reactors in exchange for a promise of better behavior.
All of this raises troubling questions. What will deter China and North Korea from using their military or nuclear arsenals to achieve their strategic objectives? How would the United States respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or a North Korean invasion of the South?
Would the U.S. resist such an invasion, launched using only conventional forces, if it were preceded by threats of the nuclear destruction of Los Angeles, or San Francisco, or Prudhoe Bay, Alaska?
Absent even a limited missile defense U.S. policymakers would have to pause and consider the consequences.
Report of the North Korea Advisory Group Committee on International Relations United States House of Representatives
The CIA Factbook on North Korea
The Threat From Iran
CIA analysts have warned for a decade that Iran could have nuclear weapons capable of hitting the United States by the year 2000.
Today we know, and the bi-partisan, congressionally-appointed Rumsfeld Commission confirmed,
"Iran is placing extraordinary emphasis on its ballistic missile and WMD development programs. The ballistic missile infrastructure in Iran is now more sophisticated than that of North Korea, and has benefited from broad, essential, long-term assistance from Russia and important assistance from China as well."
"Iran is making very rapid progress in developing the Shahab-3 MRBM, which, like the North Korean No Dong, has a range of 1300 km. This missile may be flight tested at any time and deployed soon thereafter."
The Rumsfeld Commission further reported that Iran has the technical capability to test an ICBM-range missile capable of hitting the United States: "A 10,000 km-range Iranian missile could hold the U.S. at risk in an arc extending northeast of a line from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to St. Paul, Minnesota."
The New York Times has recently reported:
"…. the United States cannot track with great certainty increased efforts by Iran to acquire nuclear materials and technology on the international black market, mainly from the former Soviet Union, the officials said.
"…Washington has also made little headway with efforts to weaken the longstanding strategic relationship between Iran and Russia, which is brimming with nuclear weapons and stockpiles of the fissile material Tehran needs to make a nuclear bomb.
"The agency has told policy makers that it is not certain that Iran actually has atomic weapons now. Instead, the new assessment says that the C.I.A. can no longer rule out the possibility that Iran has acquired them, in contrast to previous assessments that excluded that possibility." The New York Times, January 17, 2000.
The CIA Factbook on Iran
The Threat From Iraq
The Gulf War in 1991 revealed the extent of the Iraqi program for developing WMD and ballistic missiles.
Iraq had been, and continues to develop short, medium, and long range missiles capable of carrying nuclear, chemical, and biological warheads. These include Scud missiles which they launched against Israel during the Gulf War and the Al Hussein missile (Range 600 km) and the Al Abbas missile (range 900 km).
After seven years of UN sanctions and inspections, Iraq continues to defy international non-proliferation norms and instruments.
The bi-partisan, congressionally-appointed Rumsfeld Commission Report stated that despite UN monitoring after the Gulf War:
"Iraq has maintained the skills and industrial capabilities needed to reconstitute its long range ballistic missile program. Its plant and equipment are less developed than those of North Korea or Iran as a result of actions forced by UN Resolutions and monitoring. However, Iraq has actively continued work on the short range (under 150 km) liquid- and solid-fueled missile programs that are allowed by the Resolutions."
"Once UN-imposed controls are lifted, Iraq could mount a determined effort to acquire needed plant and equipment, whether directly or indirectly. Such an effort would allow Iraq to pose an ICBM threat to the United States within 10 years."
But the Commission also noted that, "Iraq could develop a shorter range, covert, ship-launched missile threat that could threaten the United States in a very short time."
Given Iraq's ties to Communist China, however, it is not inconceivable, that Iraq could purchase from them a long range missile capable of hitting the United States at any time.
The CIA Factbook on Iraq
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Background Resources
National Intelligence Council: Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015
Major Report by the United States Central Intelligence Agency on the Ballistic Missile Threat, September 1999
Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions
February 2, 2000
The Deutch Commission Report: Report of the Commission to Assess the Organization of the Federal Government to Combat the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, John M. Deutch, Chairman, July 14, 1999, Pursuant to Public Law 293, 104th Congress — Major Report to Congress on Ballistic Missile Defense
Executive Summary Appendices
BMDO Report on Sea-Based Missile Defense
Summary of Report to Congress on Utility of Sea-Based Assets to National Missile Defense, July 1, 1999.
The Proliferation Primer
A Majority Report of the Subcommittee on International Security, Proliferation and Fderal Services, Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, February 1998.
Why Nuclear War is Possible
Vice President Brian T. Kennedy and Adjunct Fellow Mark T. Clark explain the common sense case for a national missile defense. Download this policy briefing now in PDF format (158 KB).
Rumsfeld Commission Report: The Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Introduction by Donald Rumsfeld
Executive Summary
A special Congressional commission, headed by former Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, concluded that the United States faces much more serious ballistic missile threats than previously thought.
The Cox Committee Report: The United States House of Representatives Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic of China
The Cox Committee Report details the theft of U.S. nuclear secrets by the People's Republic of China and the proliferation by China of weapons of mass destruction. The report was endorsed with overwhelming bi-partisan support.
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