Kevin -
Indeed, that's how I define "analysts" as well.
Devine has also been making dire predictions about Conseco for a couple of years now, and so far has been pretty far off the mark, at least in terms of specifics. Thus my skepticism about the accuracy of his report. My point about the application of assumptions is still valid with respect to that report, I believe.
I will concede, though, that increased loan default rates and the dwindling supply of assets that can be liquidated to raise cash are a material difference between the current situation and how things were when Wendt took over. Moreover, the overall economy is now in much worse shape and unemployment is higher. Obviously that isn't going to help Conseco Finance, particularly in the Manufactured Housing sector.
As for credit ratings, though, I thought that the ratings were raised after Wendt took the helm, and that now they are about where they were before he got there. I haven't been watching that closely, though, so I wouldn't know. I do know that the corporate bonds are trading at an extremely steep discount.
As I said before, I won't argue that Conseco is in great shape. However, I still think a hatchet job is a hatchet job, and a shoddy report is a shoddy report. Ditto crappy journalism.
- Allen |
