Beamer - Re: ". I should see if I can find Niceguy's old post...."
Message 15657966
To:maui_dude who wrote (35630)
From: niceguy767 Thursday, Apr 12, 2001 11:28 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to 35639 of 35749
maui:
"you keep mentioning 20c eps for Q1 for Intel.
20c is not the estimate. It is more like 15-17c.
just an FYI."
yes, maui, I have mentioned $0.20 (as that is 50% of my estimate for AMD at $0.40 compared to existing prices of $28 vs. $25).....INTC's Q4 was somewhere around $0.36 at which time INTC was trading at $35 (i.e. 100 times Q4 earnings)...INTC's forward looking prospects have worsened since then as has their eps, from all indications, and optimistically, is looking at $0.20, although I think they could come in significantly under that if they have to write off capital losses in investments...At $0.17 for Q1, should the same 100 times factor be in place, INTC should trade at $17.00...As I said earlier, $17 may even be optimistic, given my perception of INTC's gloomy forward looking prospects...Indeed, as some have inferred here, INTC's Q2 could see a loss (i.e. a negative eps if Dan Niles and my crystal ball is not too cloudy) which, if true, could well see Y2001 estimate lowered to $0.25 real fast...Let's face it, INTC's P3 and celery blue light kmart special are "dead meat" and P4 just doesn't seem to have the b____s to cut it against the Athy...INTC is caught between a rock and a hard place...Their business model, which has been unassailable for 20 years, fell off the cliff at the end of the 20th century...There is a new kid on the block with a 21st century model which has wholly eclipsed the tired and worn model that had been so successful for INTC...INTC is still attempting to work their outmoded 20th century business model as they still don't seem to realize that their business model is now museum material...INTC is under siege on all fromts...weakened demand, outmoded P3 and celery, a stumbling P4 and a new challenger who can easily push INTC back into the tar pit by neutralizing any new product that INTC brings forward...and that's just with the Athy...we haven't even seen the palomino, the next assault on INTC in the mobile, server and workstation spaces...The foundation for a new order has been set and INTC is destined to be a secondary player as the new order plays out... |
