Earlie - A post I did on my board on the FOOL
=========================================================
It may be too early to short but it sure the hell is to late to be chasing longs except for the best of chart watchers or the best of day traders.
PMCS gaps up over 3% on that nasty close yesterday. Criminal IMHO, but nothing I can do about it. This crap all over the place.
Naz right at resistance, Call volume staggering, we are way above max pain, doji's on the charts all over the place, and worse of all a TRIN above 2.0 for most of yesterday and much of the day before, bad news from CSCO yet they gap us up big and sell all day.
Yesterday we had 3 +1000 TICK counts on the spoos and they finished near flat. +1000 is panic buying but the spoos went NOWHERE. This SHOULD ring a red flag, but these days who cares. All the missed opportunities, all the johnny come latelies, all the people waiting for 200 EMA crossovers are chanting new bull market.
People watching indicators like TICK TRIN divergences smell something here, and believe me it stinks.
DISTRIBUTION my friends. Plain and simple.
Now could we go higher? Sure why not. There might be another 10% rise on the index before a correction. Hell there might be a 100% rise before a significant correction but realistically what are the odds?
Let's be honest here?
Does anyone see value or is this PURE GREED at this point.
Yes there may be a "greater Fool" but for those that bought the top today perhaps they were that fool.
I do not know how they manage to distribute going up but they do.
I guess gap ups are part of it. After those gaps up and sideways action, suckers put in bid orders on JNPR to buy the dip at 22. I was watching the Level II on JNPR and actually shorted at 22. There was an order to buy 40K at 22 and a mere 500 on the ask at 22.01. Looks like support until you realize that people were lining up all day for the "bounce that did not happen". We sliced thru 22 like a knife thru butter.
Today's gap up and poor close should be ominous.
SHOULD BE is the key cause there still are enough dippers dipping, chasers chasing, and and abbey coneheads trying to get you to part with your money.
The sheep are grazing while the distribution continues.
It could go on for another day, another week, or (another month like we did last summer - churning at the top - while the favorites kept rising to keep appearances up).
If you want to graze, be on the lookout for certain predators cause they are lurking.
M |
