Henrik, not aimed at you in particular. But I am a newcomer here and hope to drum up some conversation.
Many moons ago, VGIN was a darling of the early personal genetics story. They were even the leader in bringing a diagnostic kit (HIV) through approval. It went through the bubble like all the others, and with as radical slopes up and down as any other. The stock price now is at pre-bubble prices (still, a $160m mc), and yet in the last 4 months it has:
1. US approval to sell the product
2. An agreement to purchase it by a large lab, Dynacare, and is shipping it starting December.
3. Shown that they have an HCV and HCB geneotype test.
4. Seen the publication of HIV treatment studies that ought to make physicians want to know what strain they are treating, and
5. Shown that they can detect HIV resistance in newly-diagnosed, low viral load individuals.
They also just completed a $22m financing near current prices.
In other words, compared to where they were when the world loved them they are quite a bit better off, but the stock….ugh. Or at least that is my very visceral first take on this. As those who know me as Wilder know visceral is my thing. Indeed, I've been getting evisceralated a lot lately.
I’ll be the first to admit I have no feel for the competition, virco/ABIO/VRLGC/ABT and whoever. And I'm not sure what our margins would look like, seems the company repackages a lot of other people's boxes, gels and chemicals.
I note that VGIX does not even show up in ANYONE's 2002 Contest. VGNX, which has its virtues to be sure is pretty well represented, but is quite a bit farther from recurrent revenues I think.
So, would anyone mind building me up or tearing me down on VGIX as an investment possibility? I'd say there is take-out value here for downside protection.
Appreciate any comments.
Wilder |
