First you have to see the market drop, then you can give a
blanket recommendation of when to buy in. Anything other than
that can cost people money.
Some industries don't begin to improve until a later time period.
Rosebabe, as I told Number 3 earlier, if you look at the past 7 quarters or so, the market has always declined right before the middle of the month when the earnings start coming out. Then the market rises sharply for the next 3 weeks or so. I'm pretty sure it's going to happen again. And this is a weak quarter for the tech stocks. The many earnings warnings that have already been issued are testimony to that. And you have to remember, Dell has a p/e of almost 35, while the other computer companies are less than 20. Dell's growth rate has been phenomenal, but it can't last, so can it continue to justify a 35 p/e. Remember, the higher the p/e, the farther they fall when there is any hint that the good news can't last. Look at Cascade. It was above 91, then dropped to the low 20s. That's what can happen when the outlook for a high p/e stock changes. Maybe this won't happen to Dell, but I believe that investors are going to wait until earnings are actually reported to see what the true picture is, and when they do, the buying stops, and prices drop. So I expect a sharp decline in the market for the next 2 weeks.
BTW, Number 3, are you related to Number 2 and Number 1? :-) |
