Hi Cal, and Joe - Joe, your logic is impeccable - I'm not disputing your reasoning.
But here's the thing of it: being in agreement with the your thinking, I then went back to the beginning of the draws - i.e., 26 Feb - and looked for correlations both before and after the announcement - in market activity.
Following the thinking - that the market activity precedes the actual announcement - then we should have seen the Three A's hard at work. Well, in fact, one of them was selling, one was indifferent, and the other was a net buyer - in January and early February.
Top sellers, January:
House...........Bought Sold Net $Net
22 Tho Ker 39,200 130,750 -91550 746366
14 ITG...... 100 60,800 -60700 493910
88 Versus 36,124 88,015 -51891 345804
7 Green Line 546,819 576,425 -29606 87604
However, after the announcement the hedging activity began.
Reviewing the other announcements, it appears that the hedging always follows the announcements. And as noted, the prices from the original news release must have been renegotiated, because it's taking a lot of shares to cover the draws at our recent low prices (not that I care that much).
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It's no big deal. Following Joe's reasoning (again, with which I agree), the announcement will mean that the depressor to prices will be removed. We win.
If it goes the other way (ie., hedging follows after the announcement) then I guess it depends on how much, and when - it indicates a wait until the end of February. Then, we win.
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Cal:- "BTW Did I mention that DMX has 2 completed Phase III products? and Pennsaid Works, and Works Well."
Music to the ears, isn't it?
Best regards,
Jim |
