Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (12917)	1/10/2002 2:11:18 AM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) of 74559

nice post John. I was just doing some back reading. BTW...I'm short tech huge now...opened some shorts around Dec 6 and added yesterday. I am trying to be very patient...these are my shorts for the first half of the year. I don't plan on covering until we at least test the lows from Sept and I see some major Chapter 11's in the tech sector. I am also still long a pile of gold and silver stocks. I have had nearly 100% of my investment funds in gold and silver for over a year now. I've very pleased. I am now just shorted tech with margin off my gold stocks...which I will not be selling for years to come. I will just continue to trade with margin off my core positions. anyhow, I just thought I would drop you a line to say hello ...and say hello to this board too. I was reading the posts of tradermikes 2002 forecast. It was linked from another message board. Excellent stuff. I agree with him on almost everything...but... I am much much more bearish as you know. I expect a total collapse is on the horizon. I see the dow getting cut in half at minimum before this bear is over. s&p 500 to 500 and the Nasdaq sub 1000. we have some big big layoffs to deal with this year and piles of chapter 11's. I expect all 4 bubbles to at least start to crumble this year. (housing, credit, stock market, US dollar) as these bubbles start fall apart we will see some real selling...selling like we haven't seen in a long long time. I think this year will be most like 1931. the 3rd year of the 1929 crash. the real crash year. 51% off the dow that year and the housing market fell appart. This year huge amounts of wealth will disappear. I expect a large portion of americans will be get stuck holding their over valued homes with mortgages larger then there value. Just like in Japan...it will kill the economy. People will stop moving around, real estate transactions will slow dramatically, REIT's will be crushed. movers, homebuilding, and the many huge related industries will be smoked. Auto's...well...you know what will happen there. the pc sector is done...the upgrade cycle is about finished for a long time. the business case just isn't there and the consumer side will prove to be very weak in the second half. debt levels are extreme...all over. gold and silver could have a big year. You never know though...either way...i'm in for the long haul there...too much risk not being in if you ask me. 20 year bear market much closer to an end a screaming rally then there is real risk in the market. anyhow...I had best get off to bed... see ya...and happy new year. Bambs p.s. i'm too tired to proof read this post...i'm real tired...I hope it makes sense.

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