Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 148.83

+1.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (110385)	1/10/2002 1:04:19 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 152472

of course, if you only expect a 2% return, then it is probably OK if they just make $1 per share this year in my opinion i have revised my opinion. based on my calculations, i now think QCOM may be able to deliver a 3% return long term, provided they have rather excellent earnings-growth performance over the next decade. at the current price, the earnings-growth assumptions i need to make in order to get to an 11% expected return over the next decade are not very realistic in my opinion. however, i have revised my personal long-term target-buy-in price to $17, up from $11-12. that does not mean i think the stock will fall to $17; rather, the stock would NEED to fall to $17 in order for me to be able to expect an 11% long-term return based on what i consider reasonable growth assumptions. of course, i am generously assuming that they retain all their pro forma "earnings" from here on out in my calculations; i come up with a somewhat different figure if i apply a discount to the pro forma results. the scary thing, to me, is that i believe QCOM is one of the less overvalued tech companies out there (at least they make money after a fashion). JMHO

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