Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Softechie who wrote (20881)	1/10/2002 10:44:01 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 99280

Softechie, This is basically my view on the market. That major sell program yesterday to take the Nasdaq down so fast really concerned me but I was relieved that the Nikei was not down 300 to 400 points last night and that the US market held up today. Today, we find out that Smith Barney changed the asset allocation from Overweight US STOCKS -to- Underweight. They moved 2 notches down! Of course these guys are going to announce this move AFTER it is already done. That is why yesterday's drop does not concern me much anymore. In my opinion, given the strong earning that some are expecting next week, I would think that a lot of short positions are going to be closed -- meaning a rally Friday afternoon. Will it crack 2100 soon? I don't know but I do think it approaches it in the coming days---if I have to guess I would say we go over 2100 first. However, I feel that the market will then move lower (starting sometime mid next week) but not down as much as you expect. IMHO, this looks like a pretty stable level for stocks--ie..1900 to 2100 range on the Nasdaq. The next move up would occur just after the next dip that I expect to start next week and last a few days. I might then buy aggressively just before or after January short interest data is released (late January)--but only if it has come down enough. Just my plan as it exists today and I would probably change my strategy if the market does not go as I expect it. As for that MAX Pain of 39-40 on the QQQ---I don't think it will work in the the coming big earnings week. That also means a short squeeze on the way because I believe shorts piled on yesterday. Just my best guess at this point. Of course, you probably think I am way off base. I am due to be wrong in a big way.<g> Good Luck. jmho.

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