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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (56538)1/10/2002 11:59:30 PM
From: Skeet Shipman  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Predictions from Dec.

· Hyman think the odds the economy has already bottomed are higher than the Wall Street consensus forecasts. He's lifted his fourth-quarter GDP-growth estimate to -0.5% from -1%. "The economy was probably still in recession in November, but December should be the first month of recovery," he says. (ISI Group Summary, Dec. 10)

· "Synchronized recessions in 2001 are likely to be followed by synchronized disinflation/deflation in 2002," Hyman says. The economist expects the consumer price index, or CPI, to rise less than 1% on a year-over-year basis by February. (ISI Group Summary, Dec. 10)

· Helped by a ramp-up in inventories but hampered by lackluster consumer spending, GDP should grow at about a 3% pace next year, Hyman says. That would be enough to lift earnings but not to prompt excessive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The recovery in 2002 "may surprise everybody by not fitting any letter…and by being steady and moderate," he writes. (ISI Group Summary, Dec. 10 and Dec. 17)

What is your estimate for S&P 500 earnings for 2002 and 2003? Where is your SRPY?
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