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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Moominoid who wrote (13218)1/11/2002 12:09:44 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
David, while production of oil might peak in 2010 or 2020, that won't be the end of growth in liquid hydrocarbon fuel for vehicles.

Methane can be used to make methanol which can be used to make synthetic petrol with some very nice octane numbers. Mobil operated a synthetic petrol plant in Taranaki, New Zealand, for a decade. It's now run as a methanol plant because the economics of fuel currently makes synthetic petrol not worthwhile.

So, even if oil production drops off after 2010, there will be plenty of petrol available after that from natural gas [or coal] if the demand and price make it worthwhile. I think that fuel cells and other ideas won't compete with natural gas to synthetic petrol.

Big production plants give thermodynamic efficiency and the relatively inefficient processes in cars can't compete with them. Same as Capstone Turbines are horribly inefficient compared with monster power stations. But they do provide secure supply as backup and are very clean for urban environments.

I'd bet on zeolite catalysts, natural gas and good quality synthetic petrol. Then the existing engine and fuel infrastructure can carry on.

Single-person transport doesn't require a dirty-great SUV. A carbon tax would leave the decision to vehicle owners to decide whether they need an SUV or a Segway.

If anyone thinks energy or fuel supplies are a factor in booms, busts or financial collapses, shortages won't be a problem and prices are more likely to fall than rise from $20 a barrel [depending on how much printing of US$ goes on].

Mqurice
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