SI EPS Contest for AMD & Intel 4Q01
Revised 01/11/02
Changes:
(1) added contest deadline of 9:30AM EST January 14;
(2) noted that for the AMD contest Total Revenues likely greater than the sum of the CPU and Flash categories due to other products;
(3) consolidated additional discussion of teams into this message and added that team affiliations may be changed at any time;
(4) consolidated guidance into this message.
Sorry for the long post but I wanted to consolidate all the information in one post.
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I thought it would be nice to restart the traditional EPS contest. While this round will not be as full featured, there are a couple of additions that I hope will make it more interesting: (1) teams; and (2) adding Intel to the game.
For each company there will be six categories:
AMD Contest Categories
(a) Total Revenues - NOTE: this is (b) + (c) + OTHER
(b) CPU Revenues
(c) Flash Revenues
(d) Number of CPUs sold
(e) EPS (diluted)
(f) Closing stock price day after earnings release.
Intel Contest Categories
(a) Total Revenues
(b) Intel Architecture Group Revenues
(c) Intel Architecture Group Profits
(d) Intel Communications Group Revenues
(e) EPS (diluted)
(f) Closing stock price day after earnings release.
Contest Rules
(1) Each participant may place estimates for AMD and/or Intel on either the Moderated AMD thread, the Intel thread, or by PM. All entries must include all categories to be considered for top individual or team entries. Public posting would be preferred to assist in case an entry is missed. Participants may elect to be a member of a team as follows: AMD, Intel, Other. For "other" you may select another group name but the planned team scoring makes large teams advantageous. Entries without a team designation will be considered "Other." At this time, I am only planning to allow entries from SI participants.
(2) Entries will be dated per the posting time on SI. All entries may be modified once but the date submitted will be changed to the modification time. There will be a small scoring bonus for early entries. If AMD and/or Intel publicly announces a warning on earnings (up or down) then all entries will be allowed one revision even if previously modified.
(3) The last day for entries will be 9:30AM EST on January 14th which is 2 full trading sessions prior to the first earnings announcement.
(4) Individual Scoring: For each of the categories the results will be compared to the actual value reported with an adjustment based on the standard deviation of the entries (abs[difference/stddev]). If entries are all in a small range of values then this category will be weighted lower than if there is a wide range of entries. The best (smallest) score will be for an estimate close to the actual reported value. If a company does not provide a clear value for a category then that category will be eliminated from the scoring. An individual's score will consist of the sum of all six category scores less a bonus for early entries.
(5) Team Scoring: The five lowest individual member scores from each team will be added to determine the team score. Other methods were considered but I wanted to avoid any temptation to "join" the other team as a means to victory. Teams must have at least five individual scores.
There will be individual winners published for each company category. Individual and team winners will be determined for each company and overall.
The contest will begin after the market closes at 4PM EST on Monday, December 17. All entries posted before that time will be disregarded.
I will try to post summaries of entries to date regularly during the contest as the holiday season permits.
Additional Discussion of Teams
Well, I thought it would be interesting to have the pro-AMD folks all make their entries and the pro-Intel folks to do the same for AMD. While the entries would all be as individuals, those "joining" a team would have their best scores combined into a team value. In this way, there would be some friendly competition between those who favor one company over the other. Given the frequently heated exchanges between partisans... I thought it would be an interesting challenge to see which group would provide the best estimates.
And by opening the contest up to Intel entries, this allows for a "home field advantage" for each team. Since many participants may only be familiar with one of the two companies they could either just guess, invest some time in research, or wait and see what the entries look like and then guess for the other company. <g>
Participants do not have to designate a team in which case I will just place them in the "Other" category. The only suggested teams are "AMD" and "Intel" but there could be "Canadians" or "Germans." Teams must have five members to have team score calculated.
Previous EPS contests provided for some competition between sites (SI, JC's, Yahoo, Motley Fool) and I thought I would extend that distinction within the SI group. I also decided not to try and deal with gathering entries from the other sites this time - at least initially. But if there is interest (and it somehow reaches me) I would probably change my mind since the more players the more fun.
NOTE: Since teams require five members I have decided to allow participants to change their team designation at will in order to facilitate the consolidation of entries into teams.
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History & Guidance for SI EPS Contest for AMD & Intel 4Q01
The information below is taken directly from the press releases on the websites from the respective companies.
AMD Contest Categories
3Q01 4Q01 Guidance
(a) Total Revenues $766 +10% or better
(b) CPU Revenues $467 record (>$661)
(c) Flash Revenues $210 no better than flat
(d) Number of CPUs sold 7.7 record (>7.7)
(e) EPS (diluted) -$0.28
(f) Closing Stock Price
Note: All values in millions except EPS
Note: AMD earnings are pro-forma and before one-time charges. The same basis will be used in the contest.
Sources:
amd.com
amd.com
amd.com
Intel Contest Categories
3Q01 4Q01 Guidance
(a) Total Revenues $6,545 $6,700 to $6,900
(b) Intel Arch Group Rev $5,393
(c) Intel Arch Group Profits $1,328
(d) Intel Commun. Group Rev $580
(e) EPS (diluted) $0.10
(f) Closing Stock Price
Note: All values in millions except EPS
Note: Intel earnings are pre-acquisition costs and the same basis will be used in the contest. Yahoo.
Sources:
intel.com
intel.com
Yahoo company research (includes revenue and EPS projections):
biz.yahoo.com
biz.yahoo.com
-PT |
