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Gold/Mining/Energy : Direct Focus Inc. (DFXI)
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To: trilobyte who wrote (699)1/11/2002 8:01:56 AM
From: Gofer  Read Replies (1) of 768
 
I first discovered BFX thru a brief item in the Globe & Mail Stars and Dogs column (as a star) in Dec 97. It caught my eye because I was looking to buy some exercise equipment. I quickly rated it as a "Screaming Buy" (my highest rating) and first bought in at C$ 3.90, about U$ 0.90 adjusted for splits and currency. I have sold out and bought back twice.

Yes, my estimates are low, I always do a low estimate to help me decide whether or not to hold a/o buy in worse case situations. I did that estimate a few months ago and allowed for further disaster(s).

We know that:

1) 11 days of Schwinn in Sept contributed $4.3M in sales giving 4.3 * 8 = $35M per quarter. Let's say $40M because its the 4th quarter and retail sales in Dec held up in general.

2) DFXI always beats everyone's estimate in Q4. Q4 sequential increases: 2000 - 34%, 1999 - 31%, 1998 - 30%, 1997 - 22%

So if I take Q3 less Schwinn 89 - 4 = 85M, plus 30% = 110 + 40 for Schwinn = 150M

150 million sounds high, but I'll take it. Maybe it won't sell off after earnings this time.

** OT **: nothing will ever look as good as BFX in 97, But top 2 Canadian micro cap picks:

1) OSI - speculative stomach-churning quick mover - 300 - 500% return possible this year (or not)
2) IVO - low-risk but thinly traded LT buy and hold - could double this year (and next year, and so on)
also MTG on watch list

Do you think RSTN is done for now? the P/S ratio is quite high.
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