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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Running Bull who wrote (1118)7/1/1997 5:24:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom   of 2754
 
Let me offer a slightly different view. First of all, I readily agree with you about the emotion of the situation. However, I think the emotion is driven by the recent bad quarter's result along with the perception that the worst is over. FSI management has already gone on record for approximately 30 cents this year. That means the next quarter is very well known - no surprises there. The upside potential is there - that drives the emotion.

Capital budgeting usually occurs on a Fiscal Year basis, not a Calendar year basis. For instance, FSI starts a new Fiscal Year on 1 September. They have already established their capital budget for FY-98, and if the plan calls for it, they will order new equipment in September, or any month of the new FY. Other companies tend to do the same thing. While there is a wide variation in FY starting and ending, most new FY begin in the fall of the CY.

It may not be many months until new orders start to flow. We can always hope can't we?

Regards,

Don W.
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