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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)
COHU 23.54-0.9%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Nutty Buddy who wrote (2595)1/13/2002 10:59:13 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (2) of 7827
 
HI NB,

Well this last week has made me a little nervous, as the volume on Cohu has waned.I guess that can be said of the SCE sector in general.

That being said, it looks to me like most upward trendlines within the sector seem to be intact.I really watch Intc close, as if this sector is to flourish - Intel must provide leadership(Amat as well).

In conjunction with the trendlines being intact - it is really comforting to see that your "FLAME" is continuing to show a broadening light green.This market breadth, I'm thinking, is a positive developement ?? even if it has rotated out of my favorite sector.Actually I did benefit from the rotation as it has pumped up ORCL (my 4th largest holding)

home.mindspring.com

One indicator I always watch (as do you) is the volatility index.Your 5 day average shows this week's spike up.I'm hopeful that is what it is - a spike.Volatility has a scary way of bubbling before it blows.I'm looking for a little interpretation from your experienced eyes here

: home.mindspring.com

Does your 25 day range chart suggest to you that volatility is on a long term wane.It's last cycle up was sustantially weaker than the major wave before.Addittionally it looks like the dark red and blue (I'm colorblind so pardon my errors - hi volatility segments)are rolling over or laying down.During market advances Complacency tails down and provides a warning about the expiring top.I'm hopeful of a little more complacency still to go??

home.mindspring.com

With earnings season starting in earnest tomorrow,I'm still holding out for a positive psychology developing.I'm hopeful we can kick up into another step of consolidation.

I'm watching Intc.I think it will be the first to show surprising profits.Afterall they spent 7.5 billion in expansion last year.If that doesn't get you some efficiency and margins - not much will.If we get an upward surprise AND the price of the stock is rewarded - I'm thinking we are all systems go.

If not, it will be time to sell off the recent "adds ,as I fear the complacency of volatility will be signaling a short term/intermediate top.

It would darn sure be nice to own more shares at the same dollar level of investment.ggggg

Just can never get enough!!!!

Thanks again for sharing your work.I'm really beginning to enjoy the study.

Any critiques from the creator??

Bob
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