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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 50.19

+1.8%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: dr_elis who wrote (5418)	1/13/2002 3:11:28 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

<IGEN> I see it going some higher from here, but I don't think we'll see numbers like the $80's that some analysts have been throwing out. I'd say $55 is a more reasonable and conservative target over the next few months. I believe Roche has every incentive to settle. My guess is that Igen's first step is to have a heart-to-heart discussion with Bayer to see how interested they are in the central lab market as well as the POC market. If Bayer is very interested, then Igen will only negotiate with Roche about a non-exclusive license. If there is only moderate or low-level interest from Bayer, then Igen will offer Roche its exclusive license back. A freebie PCR license floating around is also going to be something that Roche will be anxious to deal on. The next step that might impact the price is the Judge issuing a final judgement. I'm not too sure what the time frame for that is - I'd guess a couple of weeks. Peter P.S. Options expiration is going to be wild - the MM's are likely to want to bring it back to $40 - I'd be a buyer if that happened.

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