I believe it's been mentioned; but, this is the first
weekly charting I've done in quite a while that I like.
Breaking that Feb 2000 trend line and closing above the
200 day moving average is encouraging. That 200 day line
is close to 5.25.
The other point of interest to me is close to 4.85. This
is where I see the long term trend line intersecting the
current uptrend line.
Let the games continue.
CAUTION: Very long posting below
In setting the goal for this year I found using last years
notes a big timesaver. (snort)
I finally have some real confidence that this will be the
last year I assign an 'irrelevant' to DMX revenue.
I thought I'd share my notes for no adequately explained
reason.
Notes:
1. All quarters are 2002 calendar
2. Probability is not properly used. A 6 (60%) does not
imply a 40% chance of failure. The initial assessement
is success or failure (+/-) and the number out of 10 is
the assessed likelihood of that occuring in 2002.
3. Value is assessed contribution to stockprice valuation
in 2002. Target is the sum of all weighted values.
European Operations:
UK revenue - est Q4 $400k Cdn, Provalis run rate 2.5 MPS,
growth 10% per quarter.
Importance: high, Probability: 5, Value: $1
Euro partner - possible unknown, similar immaterial upfront,
non-public hard to assess. Announced in 2002.
Importance: high, Prob: 8, Value: $0
MRA - persuade France/Germany and the 7 dwarfs to pay for
Pennsaid rather than just approve it.
Importance: medium, Prob: -2, Value: $1
FAIL launch - begin selling in Italy, Austria, Finland,
and Luxembourg. 2002 revenue immaterial. Sets up 2003
contribution.
Importance: high, Prob: 6, Value: $1
North American Operations:
Canadian launch - approval by HC and start of sales in
Canada by Dimethaid. Recognition as selling biotech product
in home country. Full revenue less full cost.
Importance: high, Prob: 9, Value: $2
FDA approvable letter - successful plant inspection and
approvable letter from FDA made public by Dec 31/2002
Importance: very high, Prob: 8, Value: $4
J&J agreement - announced agreement to sell Pennsaid in the
US with sizable upfront and higher %. Eliminates cash.
Importance: very high, Prob: 8, Value: $3
Pennsaid US launch - announced start of selling in the US
market by J&J by Dec 31/2002
Importance: high, Prob: 6, Value: $2
NASDAQ secondary - secondary placement on listing sold
out. Shareprice req's met. Listing by Dec 31/2002
Importance: medium, Prob: 6, Value: $2
Carribean launch - start of sales by Bryden, nice but
too small to matter
Importance: low, Prob: 9, Value: $0
OXO operations:
WF10 results/conference - phase III results publication
shows WF10 clear superiority. Presentation at accepted
conference of results. Validates/invalidates investment
in ownership. 2nd product good P3 with FDA in huge market
Importance: very high, Prob: 7, Value: $3
OXO ownership completed/announced - moves DMX from 20% of
private co. investment to 100% ownership/control. Added
expense burden. Low profile.
Importance: high, Prob: 9, Value: $1
HepC trials - progress and results of WF10 Hepatitis C
trials. 3rd potential big market. Impact in 2002.
Importance: high, Prob: 0, Value: $2
Other issues:
Assets/intellectual property - valuation of book value
plus saleable worth of other properties. Assessed at
$4.5 million in assets plus $40 million for ownership
of patents etc above and beyond specific activities.
Importance: very high, Prob: 10, Value: $1
Fungal product trials - nail fungus trials started.
Establishment of future pipeline potential. Impact 2002.
Importance: high, Prob: 7, Value: $0
....
In 2002 current state we are told HC should have been
in by now and FDA inspection report is due after January.
WF10 results analysis will be done well within the year.
This means 2002 is different in that it is no longer as
broadbrush an assessement, as issue and status specific.
It is more succeed/fail measurable.
We will know in all probability:
-whether or not we pass FDA inspection
-getting an approval or approvable letter as a result
-whether or not J&J is going to sell it and resulting cash
-what kind of results WF10 achieved in AIDS phase III
-whether or not we get Health Canada
Failure to get at least the first 4 is fatal and the
end of my investment in DMX now that europe has shown
its colours.
Launching in Canada, the euro 4, and the US in 2002 sets
up a great 2003. An important wildcard is now WF10 which
must be decently successful to add value and not create
a serious negative impact.
Due to that, I'm detailing the reason for the 7 probability
on WF10. I believe the raw data was unblinded before the
offer was made to acquire. The safety committee from the
FDA came in 3 times during the trials and left without
comment. The odds are good that the P3 at some 14 times
the size of the P2 will at least tend towards the dramatic
results from Vanderbilt.
I have a 14.70 target price somewhere before Jan 1/2003.
Coincidentally thats .10 short of its all time high.
Good luck everyone,
Wolf |
