From Aug 15 <The defenders are conditioned to trust that (a) there will be a V-shaped recovery tomorrow, now that it is no longer yesterday; (b) trade deficit does not matter; (c) debt overload does no harm; and (d) Uncle Greenspankie and Sam will make matters OK.
The final attack could involve a shock troop attack softening down the Dollar or a serious Debt explosion deep within a nation, a corporation or a even a fund.>
Jay, would Enron and Argentina be examples of what you meant there?
Just as I don't think Uncle Al was responsible for the bubble in the dot.coms, tech.specs and telecosmic dreams and warned against irrational exuberance and put interest rates up steeply to dissuade people from their mania [at least based on credit], I don't think he is responsible for the subsequent collapse and consequences.
Neither do I think he could do much to stop the rise or ameliorate the fall. Sure, he can have some influence by huge printing of money and hacking interest rates on the way down, just as he tightened money supply [relatively; 1998 and Y2K notwithstanding] and increased interest rates on the way up, with little effect on the mania.
Just in case debt overload DOES matter, which it commonly does, I have now not only unloaded all debt [at the peak of the last rise post 911] but got a little cash [in the mighty Kiwi$ - it's been sitting here for 18 months now]. So you have persuaded me to significantly change my position from a year ago. And a very good move that has been.
Thanks [Jay] for your many posts of good reasoning and information. As you will have noticed, I'm not dogmatic about my positions and am happy to surrender dodgy looking ideas. I wish Globalstar had been as flexible in their minute pricing. I have still not decided to move on GX. I move slowly [sometimes sitting like a cat for years, waiting and watching for the right time]. Or quickly if necessary.
I remain an avid Major Paradigm Shift Happens fully paid-up fan club member and think that 6 billion people are going to light up the world [rather than set it alight]. Technology, [CDMA, CDNA and cyberspace], being the way forward, with political improvements easing the way].
Mq |
