Is It Over?
Some see early signs of recovery, others not so much
By Bernard Levine -- Electronic News, 1/14/2002
e-insite.net
New York—Forget the doom and gloom, the recovery may have already begun.
That's the opinion of some industry experts, who have begun to detect the first signs of a possible upturn. Calls are increasing from component buyers to suppliers in search of parts, and for the first time in months, the price tags on some parts are firming.
The big question now is whether that uptick is sustainable. Other executives caution that the economic recession and electronics industry slump may not have run its course, with plenty of excess inventories still clouding the prospects for coming months.
"The upturn is starting to happen now," said David Maguire, chairman and CEO of capacitor maker Kemet Corp. Addressing the fourth annual Needham Growth Conference here last week, Maguire said, "This is up-cycle No. 11 for me, and I see the early signs. People are starting to call and say, 'I need this right away.' "
Finding some parts could become difficult later in the year, he suggested. "We think distributor capacitor inventories will be down by April or May, and there could be a real crunch at the end of the second quarter. Once inventories are gone, consumption is much higher than shipments, and this past cycle has been so sharp that everything was cut back and no capacity added." |
