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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)
COHU 23.54-0.9%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (2596)1/14/2002 8:50:01 AM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 7827
 
To all on thread,

Well here we are on the first day of earnings season.The good news is Cohu has trended up during the pre-warnings period.This is true of the sector in general.Actually quite impressive.

Cohu has the following intermediate plusses going for it:

1)Positive money stream - suggesting more buyers than sellers(and on a nice spike in volume on some days {inst buyers})
2)Positive On Balance Volume on the increase - bullish as price goes up in concert with OBV.
3)Balance of Power has been substantially improved - suggetsing a change in character - this is a longer term developement
4)Time segmented volume is still positive but has rolled over and has declined for the last two (light volume) days

The negatives are:

Fast stochastics have rolled over for the last two days also - similar to the above referenced TSV.Slow stochastics are at a crossover right now - it's time for buyers to come in or a negative crossover will occur.

In summary the general trend has been good but recent developements suggest a softness if extended could signal an intermediate trend reversal.

I'm waiting with baited breath on Intel's earnings due out Tuesday.I'm not alone the market needs this bellweather.

With interim weakness suspected, here are some resistance lines to watch for institutional support to come in (block transactions that click thru, but you never see appear on the bid/ask size) :

Moving averages:
10d-simple - 21.13
20d-simple - 20.45
40d-simple - 20.00
50d- expo - 19.84
50d-simple - 19.68
200d simple and expo 18.71

In past short term down cycles - the 50 days were where support came in ( +/- .10).

If Intel annonunces positive news AND responds in price appreciation - buyers will be glad they made "the buy on the dip".

Since Cohu doesn't announce until Jan 30th 2:00 pacific time,we've got time to get a read on the sector by watching the markets treatment of Intel(Amat also).

A buy below 20 could be the last opportunity if the market believes the turn in demand is at hand.Dan Niles thinks it's so - he just put out a buy on Micron saying real demand is there.Tsmc also announced its 6th month over month increase.

So will Mr. Market sell the news,or has the worm turned?

Excuse me - I've got to move my truck to the 19.75 chute.This kind of a buy has max damage of 6 points and a dead money freeze of no more than 6 months.

I can be patient and love to play this little cranker.

Definitely obsessed - but I know it and like it.hehehehe

Hope that helps all get a deal and make some long term money.

Bob
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