re: Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DKW) 3G Kit Projections
Hope they are correct:
The mobile systems market will return to 20%-30% growth in the second half of 2002, the bank believes, as "no operator with global ambitions can abstain from building 3G networks."
In 2002, the bank projects, the total investment in 2G kit will be US$51.4 billion, while 3G will demand outlay of US$4.8 billion.
This means that the total mobile kit investment will grow to US$56.2 billion from US$54.6 billion, or around 3% overall for the year.
Market share 1990 to 2005
- Ericsson will have had 40% of the GSM market and 35% of the WCDMA market.
- Nokia should have commanded a 22% share of 2G kit sales and 25% of WCDMA.
- Siemens/NEC ... expected total market share in 2G of 18% and in WCDMA of 20%.
- Overall, WCDMA should represent 80% of the 3G equipment sold.
>> WCDMA Will Compel Kit Purchase - Research
Ouida Taaffe
Total Telecom
11 January 2002
Equipment vendors and their investors need not despair, according to research from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DKW). The mobile systems market will return to 20%-30% growth in the second half of 2002, the bank believes, as "no operator with global ambitions can abstain from building 3G networks."
DKW estimates that the global investments in 2G in 2001 will have been US$53.5 billion, while that in 3G will have been US$1.1 billion. In 2002, the bank projects, the total investment in 2G kit will be US$51.4 billion, while 3G will demand outlay of US$4.8 billion. This means that the total mobile kit investment will grow to US$56.2 billion from US$54.6 billion, or around 3% overall for the year.
The bank argues that the efficiency gains to be had from data transfer using WCDMA, which can be tenfold, will force operators to invest in their networks. It considers that "no operator facing invading 3G licensees will be able to protect their positions without ... upgrades."
Given this drive to greater efficiency, DKW calculates that the 3G market will reach US$40 billion by 2005. Within this overall sum, around US$10.5 billion will be spent in Western Europe on WCDMA kit, with Asia laying out US$11.4 billion on the same technology, DKW estimates.
After WCDMA, cdma2000 is expected to be the biggest seller, with a global market worth around $4.4 billion in 2005. EDGE and TD-CDMA are thought to be able to command markets of around US$2.3 billion-US$2.4 billion each.
As there are only a limited number of "credible" suppliers of the equipment, DKW looks to these companies to provide good returns for investors. It estimates that between 1990 and 2005, Ericsson will have had 40% of the GSM market and 35% of the WCDMA market. Nokia should have commanded a 22% share of 2G kit sales and 25% of WCDMA. Siemens/NEC brings up the rear with expected total market share in 2G of 18% and in WCDMA of 20%. Overall, in DKW's view, WCDMA should represent 80% of the 3G equipment sold.
DKW said the cost per WCDMA unit base station, on the basis of the recent AMENA contract with Siemens/NEC, is E120,000. The total cost per subscriber is thought to be E400 <<
- Eric - |
