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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13437)1/14/2002 10:38:06 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Mq:

>>With many Chinese companies competing for international business [and local], instead of fighting each other over ideologies in the PLA and waving little red books, there has been, and will increasingly be, a vast productivity increase [measured in US$]. 100 women producing nothing 20 years ago are now in a position to produce swarms of cellphones at low cost.<

I make a living importing industrial fasteners from China and to a lesser extent from Japan and Europe. The market perception of Chinese quality in the US is 10 years behind the curve (a la Fastener Quality Act of 1990 qualitydigest.com. I buy from an ISO-9002 certified manufacturer in Shanghai whose quality is equivalent to all but the best US manufacturers. Here's the kicker: my cost for the finished product, landed in Boston, is less than the cost of the raw materials in the US. Also, it is becoming increasingly possible to find specialty fasteners in China for which it is possible to obtain premium pricing in the US.

My prognosis is that over the next ten years the majority of US commodity industrial fastener manufacturers will be blown out of the water by Chinese product. And Europe? The only thing that will prevent European manufacturing from being submerged by the Chinese tsunami will be trade tariffs, which the socialists in Europe will implement. The Euro is on its way to US 50 cents, imho.

I would like to move to the West Coast (spouse will not move) and regret not doing it at the time I attended business school. The Pacific Rim will be THE STORY of the 21st century.
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