<<Why would you avoid it at any price?>>
I will give you a very unsatisfying answer (unsatisfying to myself as well, but experience dictates my logic): the chart.
When a stock gaps down on elevated volume, with or without material news, my experience indicates the prevailing odds favor continued weakness for an extended period. The rationale holds in the opposite direction as well (SFAM, and, to a lesser degree, TGAL currently have extremely positive stances by this measure, in my opinion).
Of course CREE may very well not underperform...and if your research indicates that there is such an overwhelming preponderance of evidence favoring purchasing CREE at these reduced levels, then this stock will be one of the enviable minority of cases where my observed pattern does not hold.
However, my experience tells me to approach stocks which have recently gapped down with great trepidation...and those that have recently gapped up with great enthusiasm.
And the fact that SFAM is pulling back today following a great run over the past 2 weeks may well present the opportunity to express that enthusiasm. The fact that SFAM similarly ran up from $1.75 to $3.00 in the very recent past, and then spiked again 6 weeks later (i.e. the latest run), suggests not only that SFAM has much further to go on the upside, but that my observations about spiking behavior in a stock is a decent tool when guessing about future directions (and I've pursued this observation by finding about 5-10 other stocks with similar compelling patterns).
Best wishes,
Scott |
