There was never much of a truce -- Hamas had only promised to stop attacks within the Green Line (and they didn't even keep that promise), and Islamic Jihad had never agreed to the truce in the first place. According to Debka, over the weekend Arafat remarked once again "a martyr in Jerusalem is worth 70 elsewhere", which Debka interpreted as a nudge, nudge, wink, wink to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
I think it's now been shown that Arafat is unable to deliver the pathetic little that would be required to throw the ball back into the Israeli's court -- a week or two of actual quiet, a real cease-fire. If he were an ordinary despot with one army and a chain of command, think how simple that would have been to deliver.
Even for Arafat, his position cannot be a happy one. The Palestinians have less than nothing to show for the intifada, the Israeli retaliatory strikes don't even make the headlines anymore, the Americans aren't talking to him, the Arab League is backing off, and Mubarak is livid at his attempts to turn the West Bank into a forward base for Hizbullah and Iran. Nor can he buzz about foreign capitols being kissed and feted -- his usual recourse when things get hot -- because the Israelis have him grounded in Ramallah.
Question for 2002: can the Palestinians change management or can they only follow Arafat off a cliff? |
