New El Nino to bring weather chaos
John Vidal and Paul Brown
Monday January 14, 2002
The Guardian
A new El Nino, the periodic warming of
the surface of the Pacific ocean that can
trigger severe worldwide weather and
environmental disasters, has been
observed building up by a US government
agency.
The phenomenon brought droughts and
floods, causing thousands of deaths and
serious malnutrition, across Latin
America, southern Africa and the Pacific
region during its last appearance in
1997-98.
Some 230m people lost their homes in
China, while Hurricane Mitch devastated
Honduras. The phenomenon also caused
serious delays to the monsoon in India
and severe flooding in Bangladesh.
Scientists believe that the small rise in
temperature in the Indian and Pacific
oceans was enough to also provoke a
severe cold wave in Europe in October
1998 and a crippling ice storm in the
southern US.
Other phenomena observed included
forest fires in Indonesia, Brazil, Central
America and Florida, and floods in
California and Mexico. More than 15% of
the world's coral reefs were killed and the
global tourism industry was hit.
National Oceanic Atmospheric
Administration (Noaa) experts say it is too
early to forecast the severity of this El
Nino, but they expect the US to
experience problems from this summer
until next year.
Scientists have predicted that El Ninos
will become more frequent and more
severe as the world warms.
The Noaa warning is backed up by the
enhanced cloudiness and precipitation
recorded recently over the equatorial
central Pacific for the first time since the
1997-98 episode.
"The magnitude of an El Nino determines
the severity of its impacts," said Vernon
Kousky, Noaa climate specialist. "At this
point, it is too early to predict if this El
Nino might develop along the same lines
as the 1997-98 episode, or be weaker.
"The first region on the globe to
experience El Nino's impacts would be in
the tropical Pacific," he added. "Indonesia
is likely to realise some relief from
torrential rains. If El Nino develops as is
presently indicated, the Pacific northwest
will experience wetter than normal
conditions in the autumn. In the winter,
Louisiana eastward to Florida, and
possibly southern California, could also
experience wetter than normal conditions,
and the northern Great Plains will be
warmer."
El Nino episodes have occurred every two
to 10 years and can last up to 12 months.
In Spanish their name refers to Jesus
Christ because they used to take place
around Christmas.
The timing of this episode could be
politically significant because of the
Rio+10 conference in August. The main
topic will be President George Bush's
refusal to sign the Kyoto climate
agreement, along with the US failure to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
guardian.co.uk |
