Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Vitas who wrote (27615)	1/15/2002 7:16:36 AM
From: Robert Scott	Read Replies (3) of 52237

This is not the early 30's - we are much more responsive than we were then. Further, hopefully, we will not pass a Tariff bill (Smoot/Hartley (sp)) like they did back then that shut down US trading with the world - we're more likely to open up more markets to our goods today. Further, while the Fed eased early on in the 30's - it stopped for over a year which exasperated the declines - our Fed is not willing to do that. I will agree that there is a risk the consumer will stop supporting the recovery or pause - that is a real risk and could prolong the time to strong growth. Countering that possibility are strong refinancings, low oil prices, and an uptick in consumer confidence. There is also a risk of lower world growth. There certainly is risk in this market - it's not a case closed deal - I'm just saying that based on where we are now in the US, the case for equities is compelling. If my model signals that it's time to get out, I will but it hasn't yet.

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