Bob,
I'm never quite sure about how important Intel is to the chip equipment sector. I like Intel (one of my few longs right now), but every Intel microprocessor package is surrounded by some chipset (which is, maybe, 50% of the time Intel?), plus several memory chips (not Intel), plus the chips in all the card components (not Intel, except maybe a LAN card or two). So when it comes to packaging equipment, I have to think having the memory companies (et al.) is more important than just Intel, although having everyone is even better.
My guess is that, because of the DRAM glut, TER is getting punished because TER's probably has more than a few DRAM customers, a couple of which are going out of DRAM. I'm just guessing this, though--I have no idea who TER's customers are. But we *do* know that several DRAM makers are leaving the market. So maybe it is good that Cohu didn't have them as customers. . .
As far as 300mm yielding double the chips, I think we have to figure out if Cohu's Intel is packaging twice as much product. I'm guessing not. They are probably running fewer lots, so it's not clear how much additional backend equipment they need. I suspect VLSI's book-to-bill assumption for the backend just comes from the expectation that the total volume of chips produced world-wide will always be increasing, which seems reasonable--just don't know if those are microprocessors (which we'll call Cohu's area) or memory, flash. . .
Good luck tomorrow. I'm just hoping Intel's statement about gaining market share gives AMD a kick, which I am currently a suffering short! Of course, AMD will say the opposite during their call, but who believes Jerry Sanders? :-)
Regards,
Steve |
